Foreword
The support I draw for this theory spans the scope of the Lost broadcasts, as well as the canonical multimedia elements of The Lost Experience alternate reality game (ARG). If you consider the ARG materials to be spoilers, you may want to avoid this theory.Beyond this foundation, I've filled in a fundamental story arc. The discussion on 4815162342.com has helped to enrich it greatly! Some hypothetical details--many of which are full-blown theories in their own right--have been fitted in. More discussion of how additional details might fit in, or not fit in, is welcomed! In the context of this theory, certainly, not all Lost mysteries have been evaluated. Please feel free to discuss how these mysteries support or defeat my proposals: The Valenzetti Countdown Theory Forum Thread.
The Story
At Princeton, a miniature scroll was fastened in his cubicle, bearing the calligraphic Latin inscription, "COGITO ERGO DOLEO." English translation: I think, therefore I despair. A scholarly joke, really. "My motto," he sighed.Enzo Valenzetti was depressed. He got that way by thinking too much. But the patterns just wouldn't stop! They came to him so naturally, he didn't really understand why they weren't clear to everyone. Of course, not just anyone would be looking from his perspective.
Already, his worldwide renown as a brilliant mathematician had been firmly established, ever since he had solved the venerable mystery of Fermat's Last Theorem. The truly magnificent scope of his "renaissance" intellect, however, was largely unrumored. No sunrise, really, because he didn't get out much. Great thoughts ruled his life, and the realms of astronomy, astrophysics, biology, chemistry, cosmology, geology, medicine, meteorology, and zoology were only a few of his mental playgrounds. Most recently, he had been assembling a historical overview of the literature on some "softer" sciences: paleontology, agriculture, ecology, economics, government, jurisprudence, military science, politics, psychology and, of course, history itself. He frequently mused about the "connectedness" of it all, and thought he could publish something new, without much math. He was a little tired of being "that Fermat guy."
But then...gestalt! Cognizance!! Mathematics was a part of--no, intrinsic to--the connections!!! He set to work, quantifying and codifying the patterns of connections across the history of disciplines, across all of mankind's learning, really. Notebooks were filled...THE EQUATION EMERGED.
And that's when the depression got started. Civilization, mankind's vehicle to peace and advancement, was in peril. Nay, doomed. Every nation-state in history, under every system of government, was subject to the convergence in probability of a massive number of nemesis to its continuing success. The sources of threat ranged from societal and political pressures, to economic concerns of population and resources, to competitors big and small from the natural kingdoms, to the weather, the earth itself, and things yet more cosmic. He calculated all the odds. Rome, Greece, and other stand-out examples of historical empires all met their demises quite predictably, he found, within the parameters of his equation. He applied it to Soviet Russia, and saw the coming fall. He checked other then-current, seemingly robust governments...and began to be afraid. Bad outcomes, seemingly inevitable, were the rule.
Desperate to find the exception case, he went back to the beginning. The legendary Sumerian Epic of Gilgamesh claimed that the ancient god-king of Uruk was the founder of mankind's civilization, but Enzo knew that, internationally, it really began in the Egypt of 2613 BC. This was the reign of Sneferu, who built the first true pyramids, aligning them with the arc of the Sun and imbuing them with the sacredness of his royal cult. Snefuru, first Pharoah of the 4th Dynasty, who documented the very first trade agreements with other nation-states...he was the beginning of peaceful coexistence on earth--at least, the overall attempt--as much as it exists today.
He looked at his small chart of royal cartouches for a moment, lost in thought. Almost unaware, Enzo found himself, from this starting point, running the calculations for the entire sweep of modern civilization. At first, it didn't look too unmanageable. Many formidable challenges were predicted around the globe, but Enzo had hope that the greatest efforts of humanity could address these, if given the proper awareness to act in time.
